货币流动性过剩、利率、通货膨胀对股票市场泡沫的影响

The Impact of Monetary Excess Liquidity,Interest Rates and Inflation on Stock Market Bubble

我国正处于经济转型时期,货币流动性、利率、通货膨胀及股票市场都具有不同于其他国家的特点。文章选取2005年1月至2013年6月月度数据,实证分析所选变量之间的关系,得出我国股票市场存在以下特点:货币流动性过剩、利率、通货膨胀对股票市场泡沫形成具有较强的作用机制;股票市场泡沫对通货膨胀、利率影响明显,对货币流动性过剩影响并不明显;通货膨胀、货币流动性过剩对股票市场泡沫的影响要比利率对股票市场泡沫的影响更大。这一研究结论可以为国家宏观经济政策的制定和股票市场投资者确定投资策略提供参考。

China is undergoing the period of economic transformation, the monetary liquidity, interest rates, inflation and the stock market has the characteristics different from other countries. This article selects monthly data during January 2005 and June 2005, empirically analyze on the relationship between the selected variables, and discovers the following characteristics of China＇s stock market： 1. Monetary excess liquidity, interest rates, and inflation have strong mechanism of action on the stock market bubble. 2. The stock market bubble has obvious negative impact on inflation and interest rate, the impact on monetary excess liquidity is not so obvious. 3. Inflation and monetary excess liquidity are having bigger influence on stock market bubble than interest rate do. Hope the research conclusion can provide evidence for the formulation of China＇s mass control and for the investing strategy for stock market investors.