基于GM(1,1)模型的地表拦洪坝沉降预测

Prediction on settlement of surface flood control dam based on GM (1,1) model

地表拦洪坝不均匀沉降可严重影响拦洪坝水库的安全,给矿山带来安全隐患,因此合理预测地表拦洪坝水库的沉降值,对矿山安全生产具有重要的意义。运用灰色理论的GM(1,1)模型对拦洪坝附近监测点累积沉降值进行预测,并与实际监测数据对比,结果表明,该模型在地表拦洪坝沉降值预测中有一定的适用性和科学合理性。运用该模型对监测点6~9月份的沉降值进行预测,得到拦洪坝监测点沉降值的趋势,对矿山安全生产具有一定的指导意义。

The uneven settlement of the surface flood control dam can severely affect the safety of flood control dam reservoir,which brings about the mine hidden safety problem. Therefore, the reasonable prediction on the settlement of surface flood con trol dam will be of important significance to the mine productioi, safety, The accumulated subsidence values of monitoring point^- nearby the flood control dam are forecasted using GM （1, 1） model of grey theory and compared with the actual monitoring data. The results show that the model to predict the values of surface flood control dam subsidence has certain applicability and scientific rationality. The model to predict the settlement of mo- nitoring points values for 6 - 9 months produces the subsidence value trend of flood control dam monitoring, which can serve as a guidance in safety in mine operation.