跨期选择中的偏好反转:概率贴现的新视角

Preference Reversal in Intertemporal Choice: A New Perspective of Probabilistic Discount

传统研究认为结果贴现的动态非一致性导致了跨期选择中出现偏好反转,但该观点忽略了事件的概率属性。为此,界定并分析了跨期选择中的偏好反转现象,基于"概率-时间权衡"模型在结果贴现之外引入概率贴现的新视角,系统地分析了偏好反转的原因并给出仿真分析。研究表明,动态非一致的概率贴现能够并行地解释跨期选择中的偏好反转。该结论挑战了现有的贴现理论模型,为跨期选择研究提供了更全面的分析框架。

It is assumed that dynamic inconsistence of outcome discount is the cause of preference reversal in intertemporal choice. However, this perspective ignores the probability attribute. To address this problem, this paper redefines preference reversal in intertemporal choice and systematically analyzes potential causes of preference reversal by introducing a new perspective of probabilistic discount based on the model of ＂probability-time tradeoff＂. Our result shows that dynamical inconsistent probabilistic discount could explain the preference reversal in parallel, which challenges current temporal discount models and provides a more complete analytical framework for intertemporal choice study.