经济开放度与货币政策有效性:微观基础与实证分析

Economic Openness and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy:Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Analysis

长期以来,关于经济开放度和货币政策有效性之间关系的研究,不仅缺乏微观基础,而且实证结果也充满争论。本文通过构建开放条件下的新凯恩斯宏观经济模型,为考察经济开放度和货币政策有效性之间的动态关系提供了一个基于一般均衡框架的微观基础,并通过模拟分析得出了货币政策有效性随经济开放度提高而下降的基本结论。基于中国1992—2012年季度数据的实证分析表明:随着经济开放程度的提高,中央银行利率变动所引致的产出效应和价格效应均出现了明显下降。这一结论不仅为模拟分析结论提供了实证支持,同时在不同的模型设定和估计方法下均是稳健的。

For a long time, studies on the relationship between economic openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy not only encounter the criticism of lack of micro-foundations, but also face with controversial empirical results. By constructing a New Keynesian macroeconomic model, this paper provides a microeconomic foundation for analyzing the relationship between economic openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy under a general equilibrium framework, and the simulation analysis shows that the effectiveness of monetary policy generally decreases with the increase of economic openness. Using the quarterly data from the 1992--2012 period for the Chinese economy, this paper＇s empirical results show that： the more open the economy, the smaller the output and inflation effects of a given change in the central bank interest. This finding not only supports the theoretical predictions of the simulation analysis, but also proves to be robust across all the different specifications and estimation methods examined.