党代会召开、监察力度变化与中国经济波动

National Congress of China's Communist Party,Government Official Administration and China's Economic Fluctuation

本文通过对1978年到2008年的中国省级面板数据分析后发现,中国经济波动与每五年召开一次的中国共产党全国代表大会密切相关。每次党代会召开前一年,各省名义GDP增速较平时下降约3.3个百分点;而党代会召开后一年,各省名义GDP增速高出平时约2.6个百分点。进一步研究表明,党代会前后的经济波动与政府对官员的监察力度变化有关。党代会召开之前,中央和地方政府对官员的监察力度加强,这会限制地方政府财政支出总量并改变财政支出结构,导致各省固定资产投资和经济增速双双下降。党代会之后,相关压力的减轻使得政府监察力度下降,在晋升激励下,地方政府财政支出总额和偏向于投资建设的财政支出增加,使得经济增速上升。

After analyzing 1978--2008 provincial panel data, we find that China＇s economic fluctuation is closely related with the National Congress of the Communist Party held every five years. In detail, the provincial growth rate of GDP of the preceding years of the Congress is 3.3 percent lower than usual, while that of the next years of the Congress is 2.6 percent higher. Further studies show that these fluctuations are connected with the strengthened administration from the central government to the local government during the Congress. Before the Congress, both central and local governments would strengthen the supervision to their subordinates, limiting the fiscal expenditure in total and changing its structure. The result is the contraction of capital expenditure and the drop of GDP growth rate. After the Congress, the pressure is released, resulting in the weakening of the supervision, which brings the increase in total fiscal expenditure and the capital expenditure. The growth rate of GDP then increases.