人口年龄结构与中国省际技术进步方向

Age Structure of Population and China's Provincial Technical Progress Direction

偏向性技术进步是影响收入分配份额的重要原因,但鲜有文献研究技术进步方向的影响因素。本文建立一个将生产要素偏向型技术进步内生化的离散时期OLG模型,以此来分析人口年龄结构变动对技术进步方向的影响。本文的理论模型表明,在均衡状态,老年人口抚养比的提高将导致技术进步偏向于劳动力。基于"标准化供给面系统法",本文测算了1990—2010年中国省际技术进步方向,并实证研究了老年人口抚养比对技术进步方向的影响,结果表明:如果不控制要素价格扭曲,老年人口抚养比与技术进步方向之间的关系并不显著。但在控制要素价格扭曲之后,老年人口抚养比越高,技术越偏向于劳动力。此外,劳动力价格扭曲导致了技术偏向于资本。

Directed technical progress is an important influencing factor on the distribution of income share, but there are few researches about the influencing factor on the technical progress direction. Based on a discrete time OLG model which endogenizing the factor bias technical progress, this paper analyses the effects generated by old-age dependency ratio to the technical progress direction. The theoretical model shows that the rise of old-age dependency ratio will generating technical progress bias to labor. Based on normalized supply-side system method, this paper measures the Chinese provincial technical progress direction in 1990--2010 and estimates the effect of old-age dependency ratio to technical progress direction. Empirical research shows that the relation between old-age dependency ratio and technical progress direction is not distinctive if we do not control the influence of factor price distortion. But if we control the influence of factor price distortion, then the rise of old-age dependency ratio will bring the technical progress bias to labor. Meanwhile, labor price distortion will bring the technical progress bias to capital.