中国货币政策的福利损失与政策规则选择--基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

The Welfare Losses of China' s Monetary Policy and the Selection of Monetary Rules: based on New Keynesian DSGE Model

本文在新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型框架下,运用福利损失函数和脉冲响应方法研究我国最优货币政策规则选择的问题。研究结果表明,货币供应量规则相对于利率规则,使外生冲击对产出和通货膨胀的影响更持久,造成更大的福利损失,因此中央银行的货币政策规则应该逐步从货币供应量规则转向利率规则;在一定条件下,前瞻型利率规则、后顾型利率规则和泰勒规则所造成的福利损失相差不大,从便利的角度出发,中央银行应该选择后顾型利率规则。

This paper studies the selection of China＇ s optimal monetary policy rules with the method of welfare losses and impulse response analysis under the framework of a new Keynesian DSGE model. The main findings are as follows： the impacts of technology shocks and monetary policy shocks on output and inflation under the money supply rule are more lasting and the welfare losses of money supply rule are bigger, so central bank＇ s monetary policy rule should be changed from money supply rule to interest rate rule; The welfare losses caused by forward - looking interest rate rule, back - looking interest rate rule and Taylor rule do not differ widely, it is more convenient for central bank to choose back - looking interest rate rule