我国鲜鸡蛋出口的周期性波动特征及影响因素分析——基于H-P滤波模型

Analysis of the Fluctuation Characteristics of China's Export of Hen Eggs in Shell and Its Impact Factors Based on H-P Filtering Model

本文运用H-P滤波模型,对1961—2010年我国鲜鸡蛋出口额和出口价格的波动周期进行测定,分析了我国鲜鸡蛋出口周期性波动的原因。研究认为,总体上我国鲜鸡蛋出口额平均每4.36年会发生一次大的波动,出口价格每5.44年会发生一次大的波动。上一年的出口额、产量和疫病情况是影响我国鲜鸡蛋出口额的主要原因。其中,世界禽流感疫病情况对我国鲜鸡蛋出口产生显著的负向影响。

H-P filtering model is used to measure the shell during 1961-2010, and determinants of China＇s fluctuation of export value and price of China＇s hen eggs in hen eggs export are explored. In general, there is a big fluctuation every 4.36 years in China＇s hen eggs export value, and every 5.44 years in its hen eggs export price. Export value of hen eggs in the previous year, hen eggs production, and world situation of poultry blight are the major determinants of China＇s hen eggs export. World situation of poultry blight has negative impact on export of China＇s hen eggs in shell.