中国城镇化与经济增长关系的理论与实证研究

Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

国际经验表明工业化和城镇化是带动一个国家或地区经济增长的双核。中国城镇化远远落后于工业化，可以作为新时期拉动经济增长的重要战略选择。理论层面，经济增长通过收入效应、规模效应、结构效应推动城镇化进程；城镇化则通过投资拉动机制、消费刺激机制、产业优化机制、创新激励机制促进经济增长。实证层面，选取1978～2012年城镇化率和人均GDP的时间序列数据，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量分析发现，我国城镇化和经济增长之间存在稳定长期的均衡关系：选取2008～2012年省际面板数据测算全国和东、中、西部省份城镇化水平的泰尔指数，结果显示中国城镇化的省际差异总体呈现缩小趋势。

International experience shows that industrialization and urbanization is the dual core of promoting economic growth of a country or a region. Chinese urbanization lags behind industrialization, becoming an important strategy of promcting economic growth in the new period. In theory, economic growth affects urbanization through the income effect, scale effect, structure effect; economic growth improves urbanization through the mechanisms of increasing investment, stimulation consumption, industrial optimization, encouraging in- novation. In empirical aspects, using co- integration test, Grainger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition and other quantitative analysis, based on time series data of urbanization rate and per capita GDP from 1978 to 2012, the results show there is a co- integration relatiomhlp between urbanization and economic growth; based on provincial panel data from 2008 to 2012, using Theft index to measure the regional difference, the results show the differentials of urbanization among 31 - province are decreasing.