劳动力供需对劳动密集型制造业增长的影响分析——基于1996-2011年的数据

The Impact Analysis of Labor Supply,and Demand for Labour- intensive Manufacturing＇s Growth --Based on the Figures from 1996 - 2011

现阶段,我国制造业结构呈现出明显的劳动密集型向资本密集型转变的趋势。本文采用定性和定量的方法,首先研究劳动力需求对于劳动密集型产业增长的影响。其次计算了2010年我国可转移农村剩余劳动力规模,判断劳动密集型产业劳动力的供给情况。结合劳动力需求和供给情况,实证研究发现,劳动力就业数量增速大幅放缓较大程度导致了我国劳动密集型产业增速放缓。而劳动力供给数量在理论上较为充足。因此判断劳动力就业数量增速放缓的原因有可能是农村剩余劳动力在转移过程中受经济和政策因素等影响了实际转移的效果。同时也有可能由于劳动力成本上升过快,使得劳动密集型制造业调整了资本劳动比,逐渐用资本对劳动力进行替代,使劳动密集型制造业也逐渐向资本密集型转变。

At present, Chlna＇s manufacturing structure is in a transition from labor- intensive to capital- intensive. In this paper, using qualitative and quantitative methods, we firstly studied the influence of labor demand for labor- intensive＇s growth. Secondly, we calculated the scale of China＇s rural surplus labor that can be transferred in 2010, and analyzed the labor supply situation of the labor- in- tensive industry. Based on the labor demand and supply situation, through empirical research, we found that the number of labor employ- ment growth slowed sharply leading to a large extent the slowdown of China＇s labor- intensive industries. However, the number of labor supply is more abundant in theory. Thus the reason for the number of employed labor force growth slowing down may be the rural surplus labor＇s transfer process lagging behind the expected by some economic and social factors. There also may be due to the rapid rise in labor costs, making labor- intensive manufacturing adjust the capital - labor ratio. The labor force is gradually replaced by capital, so labor- intensive to capital- intensive manufacturing sector is gradually changing.