中国区域能源消费碳排放的因素分解

Regional Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in China

本文测算了2000～2010年中国30个省市的能源消费碳排放量，并运用对数平均迪氏分解法（LcwmthmicMeanDivisiaIndex，LADI）将碳排放总量分解为GDP、工业污染物排放强度、产业结构和区域经济发展不平衡程度等4个因素，以此分析中国区域经济发展过程中规模效应、技术效应、产业结构效应和区域空间结构效应对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：规模效应是促进碳排放增加的决定因素；技术效应是抑制碳排放增加的最重要力量；产业结构效应和区域空间结构效应对碳排放的作用方向尚不稳定，但对碳排放增加有一定的拉动作用。

This paper calculates the carbon emissions from energy consumption of 30 provinces in China through 2000 - 2010, and uses LMDI decomposition model to decompose the growth rate of China＇s carbon emissions into 4 types of driving factors, i.e. GDP, in- dnstrial pollutants emission intensity, industrial structure and imbalance of regional economic development, to analyze influence of scale ef- fect, technical effect, industrial structure effect and regional spatial structure effect on carbon emissions in the process of Claina＇s regional economic development. The results show that： The scale effect is determinants of carbon emissions increasing. The technical effect is the most important force to inhibit the increment of carbon emissions. The action directions of industrial structure effect and regional spatial structure effect on carbon emissions are not yet stable, but have a certain pull impact on increasing carbon emissions.