环境CGE模型的研究现状及未来展望

Research Status and Future Prospect of Environmental CGE Model

在温室效应、能源紧缺、水体污染等全球环境问题的严峻背景下,各国政府纷纷酝酿、出台相应的环境政策。环境CGE(Computable General Equilibrium,可计算一般均衡)模型作为分析环境政策、提供决策支持的主要工具之一,被国内外学者广泛地应用到相关领域的研究,并为政府制定环境政策提供参考。本文通过回顾总结环境CGE模型的发展历程、梳理国内外现有研究成果,从全球温室气体减排研究、碳税/能源税政策的分析、可耗竭能源价格波动的经济效应评价及多边气候政策分析等多方面对环境CGE模型的应用研究进行了分析和阐述。在此基础上,文章最后总结了环境CGE模型现有研究存在的局限性及面临的问题和挑战,并借鉴国内外学者现有的研究对其未来发展的可能性进行了展望。

Along with the greenhouse effect, extrerae weather, water pollution and other environmental issues, governments around the world have planned and put forward according environmental policies, such as environmental tax and energy tax. A certain model tool is needed during the process of formulation, implementaton and assessment of a policy. And environmental CGE model is just the kind of model that can be used to analyze and offer decision support to a policy. Through the search and ~nt of the current study by do- mestc and foreign scholars, this paper reviews the development and research results of environmental CGE model from five aspects： global greenhouse emissions, carbon tax/energy tax policy, economic effect caused by price fluctuation of exhaustible energy, water issues and multilateral climate policy et al. At last, this paper summarizes some limitations and challenges of the model, and looks into the possibility of the future of environmental CGE model referring to the current research.