气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

RESEARCH OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECONOMY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

利用经济学上的“投入—产出”分析方法 ,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统 ,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时 ,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构 ,预测了未来不同气候变化情景下 ,为使经济发展达到预期目标 ,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化 ,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系 ,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。

The present study adopts the basic theory of the famous economic Input Output analysis,in combination with a computer model on the effect of climate change.An Input Output model for studying the impact of climate change on economic sectors was then set up.Economic sectors become an inter related complex through the use of other sectors' products,so the effect of climate change on agriculture will influence all other sectors.When the impact of climate change on agriculture is considered,the model can show explicitly the change of total output,agricultural output and the output of other related sectors.The model provides a framework for the climate impact analysis which can reflect interactions between sectors,and also between individual and whole economic sectors.The paper predicts the future output of each economic sector,the extra investment on each sector and inter input amount between sectors when considering various future climate scenarios.Some adaptation countermeasures of climate change for the resonable development of regional economy and sustainable economic development were then proposed.