农牧交错带耕地时空动态变化特征及驱动力分析——以乌兰察布市为例

Spatiotemporal Variation and Driving Forces on Cultivated Land Change in Transitional Area between Pastoral and Agricutural——A Case of Cultivated Land Change of Ulanqab

采用乌兰察布市1990—2010年遥感解译获取的土地利用变化数据,研究中国北方农牧交错带中乌兰察布市1990年以来耕地时空动态变化过程。结合土地利用动态度模型对不同类型的耕地转入转出速度进行计算,并采用空间转移矩阵等方法分析了乌兰察布市1990—2010年耕地演化的时空过程,探讨了影响耕地变化的驱动因子。结果表明:1990—2010年期间,乌兰察布市耕地变化主要是以耕地和草地交替变化为主;1990—2000年期间耕地增加,耕地增加以草地变耕地为主,2000—2010年期间耕地减少,减少的耕地以耕地变草地、林地为主;1995—2005年这10a乌兰察布市耕地变化最为显著,平均动态度为0.55%;人口因素、自然因素、政策因素和生态工程的实施是乌兰察布市耕地变化的主要驱动因子。

According to the land use change data by remote sensing images from 1990 to 2010, this paper studied the quantitative dynamic changes of cultivated land in Ulanqab City in the farming-pastoral zone of north China. Some mathematic models were used to study the spatiotemporal change of cultivated land from 1990 to 2010 in Ulanqab City, such as land use dynamic degree model, land use type transferring matrix model, and discussed its driving factors. The results indicate that the change of cultivated land in Ulanqab City from 1990 to 2010, was mainly the cultivated land and grass land changes alternately; the increase of cultivated land from 1990 to 2000, was mainly from grassland, and the cultivated land was decreased in 2000--2010, which was changed into grassland and woodland; during years of 1995--2005, cultivated land change was most significant and the average dynamic degree of land use was 0.55%; population growth, nature conditions, policies and the implementation of ecological engineering were the major driving factors.