扩大内需:我国居民消费宏观调控的有效性研究

Expanding Domestic Needs: Research on the Effectiveness of Macro- Regulation of Chinese Residents′ Consumption

消费需求宏观调控的有效性在于以居民消费总需求的形成要素为调控对象,以各形成要素的影响效应为制定调控政策的依据。基于假定条件的理论推导表明,一定时期一国或地区居民消费总需求的大小是其国民收入、国民收入分配、居民收入分配及居民消费倾向要素综合作用的结果。要素效应的实证分析表明,近年来,我国国民收入的快速增长极大地拉动了居民消费总需求增长,国民收入分配、居民收入分配及居民消费倾向在很大程度上抑制了居民消费总需求的增长,因而,我国长期以来以国民收入增长为导向的扩大内需政策对消费需求的调控作用难以达到预期效果。

The macro regulation validity of consumer demand lies in choosing the forming factors of total consumption demand as the control objects and according to the forming factor effects to making regulatory policies. The mathematical deducting result shows that the forming factors of total consumption demand include national income, national income distribution, resident income distribution, and resident consumption tendency. The empirical analysis of factor effects show that , in recent years, the rapid growth of china＇s national income has greatly promoted the growth of total consumption demand, and national income distribution, resident income dis- tribution and resident consumption tendency largely inhibited the growth of total consumption demand, There- fore, china＇s policies of expanding domestic demand are difficult to achieve the desired effect on the total con- sumption demand since they only selected the gro^h of national income as the macro regulation direction in the very long tenn.