LEC法在通航安全影响论证与评估中的运用

Application of LEC Method During the Discussions and Evaluation of Factors Impacting on Navigation Safety

基于通航安全的影响因素多且之间相互作用关系复杂的特点,用危险性评价法(LEC)定量计算每一种危险源所带来的风险,并确定相应的风险级别.以福建三都澳港区长腰岛2号泊位为例,结合其实际通航条件,运用LEC评价法重点对风险源的识别与评价进行了探讨,通过数学模型计算得到了该项目风险值较大的风险因子,进而制定出相应的风险缓解措施.结果表明,该方法具有较强的可操作性,简单易懂,便于对评价结果进行考核,为通航影响论证与评估提供了一种新的思路.

Based on the characteristic that there are many factors having an impact on navigation safety having complex interaction relationships, the risks brought by each source of danger and their corresponding risk grades are calculated quantitatively using the operating condition risk evaluation method （LEC）. Taking berth 2 of the Long Waist Island in Fujian Sanduao port as an example, combined with the practical condition of navigation, this study focuses on the identification and evaluation of risk sources using the LEC evaluation method, whereby the greater risk factors are obtained by a mathematical model and then the corresponding risk mitigation measures are come up with. The results indicate that the method is very practicable, easy to understand and easy to assess the evaluation results, and that it provides a new way of thinking for navigation safety discussions and evaluation.