宁夏水资源可持续利用评价研究

Evaluation Research on Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

本文在吸收前人研究成果的基础上,首先对水资源可持续利用评价指标体系进行了分析,确立了适合宁夏区情的初始指标,其次利用聚类法从初始指标里筛选得到15个评价指标,采用SVM对宁夏2002—2011年的水资源可持续利用状况进行了评价,并与传统的BP-ANN的评价结果加以比较,结果表明:两者评价结论基本一致;与ANN相比,SVM模型简单,泛化性强,分类精度高。该结果对宁夏水资源的调控和分配具有一定的意义。

In this paper, on the basis of fully absorbing predecessors research results, first,we analyzed the sustainable utilization of water resources and established the initial indicator, and then we use the clustering analy-sis-entropy weight method to screen out 15 most representative evaluation indicators from the initial indicators. The support vector machine model is used to evaluate the situation of sustainable utilization of water resources in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in 2002-2011. To compare with BP-ANN, the results show that：the two have ba-sically the same evaluation results and SVM model is simple and has stronger generalization ability and higher classification accuracy, which has practical significance for Ningxia water resources regulation and distribution.