基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估

The Risk Analysis and Evalution about Pirate Attacks on Marine Energy Channel of China Based on Bayes Net

鉴于能源进口安全保障的重要性及迫切性,针对海上能源通道海盗袭击事件的不确定性与突发性,基于风险理论、贝叶斯网络、蒙特卡洛模拟等方法,建立了海上能源通道海盗袭击风险的量化评估模型,探索了快速、量化评估突发性事件的技术途径,为保障我国能源进口安全提供时效性强、精确度高的决策依据。

Since the importance and urgency of the security for nergy imports, and aiming at the uncertainty and burstiness of pirate attacks on marine energy channel, the paper has set up a model to make a quantitative evaluation about the risk of pirate attacks,which based on risk theory,Bayes Net and Monte Carlo simulation, and has explored a technological approach to evaluate sudden events quickly and quantitatively, to provid extremely timely and exact decision basis for the security of energy imports.