政府支出与中国宏观经济波动——基于贝叶斯估计的DSGE模型

Government Spending and Economic Volatility in China——Based on Bayesian DSGE Model

笔者基于1999年～2011年中国宏观季度数据,运用贝叶斯方法估计了一个包含政府部门的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型,分析在一定财政规则下政府支出扩张对宏观经济的影响,得出了需求冲击是导致中国宏观经济波动主要原因的结论.

This paper analyzes the impact of government spending expansion on aggregate economy in China by using new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model and Bayesian estimation technique subject to Chinese 1999 -2011 quarterly da- ta. The results show that the expansion of government spending can not only increase output, but also induce a crowding-out effect on private consumption in the short term. Meanwhile, the dynamic responses of aggregate economy to demand shocks are significantly higher than that to supply shocks. Finally, by using sensitivity analysis it proves that the regulatory effects of government spending un- der the low consumption habit preference are significantly better than the effects under the high consumption habit preferences. There- fore, reducing the scale of government spending and consumption habits preference is a feasible way to achieve the balanced develop- ment of Chinese economy.