辽宁沿海经济带经济与环境协调发展的态势预测

Forecast and analysis of coordinated development between economic development and environment in Liaoning coastal economic belt

区域经济环境协调发展的目标是在经济持续增长的过程中充分考虑环境要素的限制并加以保护,以获得经济效益与环境效益的统一.预测的目的则是为了掌握经济与环境协调发展的状况和趋势,以及时化解和防范经济与环境协调度恶化的风险.通过灰色预测模型对辽宁沿海经济带经济与环境协调发展的态势进行预测,经济与环境协调度预测的结果显示,2017年之后会呈现大连、盘锦两市协调度开始下降的态势;经济与环境效益综合指数预测的结果显示,辽宁沿海经济带的经济与环境效益综合评价指数主要依靠大连、营口两市的拉动和提升;经济与环境协调发展度预测的结果显示,大连市、营口市的经济与环境协调发展度明显高于其他4个城市.

The goal of coordinated development between regional economy and environment is giving full consideration to the restriction of environmental elements and to protect it in the process of sus-tained economic growth ,to achieve the unity of economic benefits and environmental benefits .The purpose of prediction is to grasp the status and trends of the coordinated development between econo-my and environment ,to resolve and prevent risk for deterioration of coordination degree of economic and environment in time .Use the grey prediction model for forecasting the coordinated development trend of economy and environment of the Liaoning coastal economic belt ,the results of prediction show that the coordination degree of Dalian and Panjin will begin to decline after 2017 .The predicted results of composite index of economic and environmental benefits show that the comprehensive eval-uation index of economic and environmental benefits of Liaoning coastal economic belt relies mainly on Dalian and Yingkou ,the two city’s pull and ascension .The predicted results of coordination devel-opment degree of economy and environment show that the coordination development degree of econo-my and environment in Dalian and Yingkou is significantly higher than the other 4 cities .