上海市闸北区2006—2012年5岁以下儿童死亡分析及死亡率预测

Death analysis and mortality prediction in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District, Shanghai

[目的]在分析上海市闸北区2006-2012年5岁以下儿童死因的基础上，运用灰色模型GM（1，1）预测闸北区5岁以下儿童死亡率的变化趋势。[方法]对近5年的监测资料进行死因分析，并使用灰色模型（ GM ）进行拟合、预测死亡率。[结果]闸北区2006-2012年5岁以下儿童死亡以婴儿死亡为主，婴儿死亡以新生儿死亡为主。5年间5岁以下儿童死亡率为3．30‰～4．98‰，2010年略有上升。2006-2012年，新生儿期主要死亡原因为出生窒息，占31．82％。婴儿期主要死亡原因为其他先天异常，占30．43％，出生窒息为第2位，占20．29％。 GM拟合效果好，2013年预测死亡率为3．88‰。[结论]先天异常、出生窒息和意外死亡严重威胁闸北区5岁以下儿童的生命，必须加大新生儿筛查力度，普及新生儿意外死亡的宣教，从而有效降低5岁以下儿童死亡率。灰色模型GM（1，1）对5岁以下儿童死亡率的拟合效果好，可以应用于预测。

[Objective] By the use of GM（1,1） model to predict mortality trends of children un-der 5 years, on the basis of the analysis of cause of death in children under 5 from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District of Shanghai City . [ Methods] Nearly 5 years of monitoring data were used for analysis of the cause of death , and the grey model （ GM） was used to fit and predict mortality . [ Results] The death of children under 5 was mainly infant death and the infant death was mainly newborns death from 2006 to 2012 in Zhabei District.During this five-year period, children mortality under 5 fluctuated from 3.30‰ to 4 .98‰and was slightly increased in 2010 .The main cause of death in the neonatal period was birth as-phyxia ,accounting for 31 .82%.For infant period , The first cause was congenital anomaly , accounting for 30.43% and the second cause was birth asphyxia ,accounting for 20.29%.The fitting effect of GM was fine and the predicted mortality of children under 5 years was 3.88‰in 2013. [Conclusion] Congenital a-nomalies , birth asphyxia and accident death seriously threaten the lives of children under 5 years.We must strengthen neonatal screening , neonatal accidental death education , thus effectively reducing the mortality of children under 5.The fitting effect of GM（1, 1） on mortality rate of children under 5 is good and can be ap-plied for prediction .