基于主成分分析的经济—物流—综合运输系统的协调发展分析

Coordinated Development of Economy-Logistics-Integrated Transport System Based on Principal Component Analysis

区域经济、物流和运输的发展是密不可分、相互影响的.一个区域的健康发展离不开三者之间的协调发展.为了研究分析三系统协调发展和影响系统协调发展的主要因素,从系统科学的角度,把经济、物流和综合运输构成一个整体,以主成分分析为主要方法,创新型地对三者之间的协调发展水平进行研究.以成都市为实证,分析了成都市经济、物流和综合运输系统的综合发展水平,发现三者之间的发展基本呈现稳步上升的趋势.通过对三系统的协调发展度分析发现,2005年以前系统的协调度呈现下降趋势,之后呈现了稳步上升的趋势,说明之后的政策措施促进了系统协调性的发展,并且通过Pearson相关性分析,找到了影响成都市三系统协调发展的主要因素.

Regional economy, logistics and transport are inextricably linked to and influenced by each other and the healthy development of an area is inseparable from the coordination among the three systems. From the per- spective of system science, economy, logistics and integrated transport were combined to study the coordinated de- velopment of the three systems and find out the main factors influendng the development. Based on the principal component analysis, the comprehensive development of the systems of economy, logistics and integrated transporta- tion in Chengdu was researched and analyzed, and the coordinated development of the three systems showed a steady upward trend. The analysis of the correlation and partial correlation between the systems provided a sound basis for further analysis. The coordination analysis of the three systems indicated that the coordination degree of the system went downward before 2005 and stably upward after 2005, which proved that local measures and policies promoted the healthy development of the systems. Finally,the main factors influencing the full development of the three systems in Chengdu were discussed in Pearson correlation analysis.