城市发展的动力与路径

Dynamics and Paths of Urban Development

2011年中国城市人口比例首次超过50％，全国进入城市社会成为社会主体的新时期。中国城市发展即将进入质量与规模并重、经济与环境双赢、城市化与城市现代化协调发展的发展阶段。本文简要讨论了创新驱动模型、要素驱动模型和城市收支平衡模型。根据这些模型，中国城市发展大致有10条基本路径：创新驱动、技术更替、增大投入规模、提高投入效率、提高投入质量、优化资源配置和调整产业结构、提高城市产出、提高城市消费、提高城市生产力和提高城市贡献比。这些路径只是部分路径，可以丰富城市发展的政策选择。

The percent of urban population in the all surpassed 50% in 2011, and China entered the ＂urban society＂. The urban development in china is on the new way with the feature of raising quality and scale of urban areas, two-win of both economic development and environmental protection, promoting urbanization and urban modernization. This paper discussed the model of innovation-driving, factor-driving, and balance of income and expense, and suggested 10 paths for the urban development in China at present, they are in- novation-driving, technology-withdrawal, increasing input-scale, increasing input-efficiency, increasing in- put-quality, improving resource location and adjust economic structure, raising urban output, raising urban consumption, raising urban productivity and contribution-rate.