气候因素用于白纹伊蚊密度预测的探索

Predicting the population density of Aedes albopictus according to meteorological data

目的探索根据气温、降雨等气象资料预测白纹伊蚊种群密度的方法。方法寻找气温、降雨量等气象参数与白纹伊蚊幼虫种群密度指数之间的关系,采用SPSS软件对其进行分析并建立回归方程。根据回归方程推算白纹伊蚊种群密度并与实际监测数据进行比较,验证其准确性。结果根据月均气温及降水量推算的蚊虫密度值与实际监测数据十分接近。结论根据月平均气温和月降水量可以较为准确地预测白纹伊蚊幼虫密度,从而为登革热等虫媒传染病疫情的预警提供参考依据。

Objective To search for the method predicting the population density ofA edes albopictus according to meteorological data so as to provide reference evidence for the precaution of arthropod-borne infectious diseases. Methods The relationship between meteorological data such as monthly average temperature and total precipitation and the population density of Aedes albopictus were analyzed. The regression equation was established by SPSS software package to predict the population density of A edes albopictus. Results The eomputative population density of A edes dbopictus larvae according to meteorological data are approximately equal to the monitoring data. Conclusion Population density of Aedes albopictus larvae can be approximatively predicted according to monthly average temperature and total precipitation, thereby, providing reference evidence for the precaution of arthropod-borne infectious diseases such as dengue fever.