基于双截尾-GPD分布的船舶溢油损失分布拟合研究

Fitting research on ship's oil spill loss based on DTD-GPD distribution

以全国船舶溢油事故损失数据为样本,针对船舶溢油损失数据的主体部分和厚尾部分分段建模,并将双截尾-GPD分布引入船舶溢油损失序列的分布拟合中,对船舶溢油损失序列的分布特征进行研究。实证研究发现,船舶溢油损失数据不服从正态分布,具有"尖峰、厚尾"的特性;分段拟合则进一步提高了损失分布的拟合准确性。

According to the samples of oil spills loss data from ships in China, this paper considers to separate the data into the main part and the tail part, and constructs a doubly-truncated distribution - GPD （DTD-GPD） model to model the two parts of the loss data. The results show that the loss data of oil spills from ship are not normally distributed but has a ＂sharp peak, heavy tail＂ feature, and the DTD-GPD distribution fitting effect is better than the traditional distribution.