国际原油价格周期波动的频域分析

Analysis of Business Cycle of International Crude Oil Price Based in Frequency Field

以1998年1月-2013年9月的普氏现货月平均米纳斯作为反映国际原油现货交易价格周期波动的分析指标．采用自回归功率谱估计技术的谱分析，将普氏现货月平均米纳斯各主周期分量单独分辨出来，并确定各主要周期长度的估计值．结果表明国际原油现货交易价格自1998年1月以来存在为期13个月的主周期和8个月的次周期波动，且该周期波动与自然环境、金融衍生品市场的周期性及国际政治因素密不可分。最后，根据国际原油现货价格的周期波动特征针对政府管理部门和石油企业据出相应的对策。

In this article, monthly average of Platts Minas from January 1998 to September 2013 is considered as a index reflecting cyclical fluctuations in international crude oil spot price. Spectral analysis based on autoregressive power spectrum es- timation is used to process the monthly average Platts Minas, indentify components of each primary cycle out and determine the estimated value of each major cycle length. The results indicate that the international crude oil spot trading price presence 13-month and 8-month time period of the primary cycle fluctuations since January 1998;the cycle fluctuations are linked with the periodic cycle of natural environment, financial derivatives as well as international political factors; we need to take some countermeasures for local government and oil companies accordin~ to the cycle of international crude oil price.