江西省农产品价格和农业生产资料价格波动关系研究

Fluctuation between Agricultural Products Price and Agricultural Means Price of Jiangxi

根据江西省1978-2012年间的年度数据，运用协整检验对江西省农产品价格和农业生产资料价格波动关系进行了实证分析。结果表明：农产品价格波动和农业生产资料价格波动之间存在显著的协整关系，农业生产资料价格的波动会带来显著的农产品价格波动，且农产品价格的波动也会引起农业生产资料价格的波动，但其影响程度没有前者显著，基于此实证分析结果对江西省农业发展提出了适当的政策建议。

Based on the data of Jiangxi province from 1978 to 2012,the author makes an empirical analysis on fluctuation relations between agricultural products price and agricultural means price of Jiangxi by using cointegration test. The results show that the fluctuation between agricultural products price and agricultural means price is significant cointegration, agricultur- al means price brings about significant fluctuations in agricultural products price, and the volatility of agricultural products price also causes fluctuations of agricultural means price, but it does not impact significantly the former one, the author makes recom- mendations on agricultural development in Jiangxi according to the conclusions of empirical analysis.