基于情景分析的西北内陆河流域分层次缓解水环境压力途径探析

Analysis of Releasing Approaches of Water Environmental Pressure in Northwest Inland River Basins Based on Scenario Analysis

利用甘肃省、青海省、新疆维吾尔自治区2010年污染源普查数据,2001—2010年环境统计数据,通过情景分析法预测了西北内陆河重点区域经济发展状况下的水环境压力演变趋势。提出了3个层次的减压取向:1)行业内部加强结构及工程减排,实现增产不增污(或减污);2)在工业废水处理效率提高不足以缓解水环境压力的情况下,从区域减排体系出发,通过生活点源的减排为工业发展寻求空间,实现区域经济增长不增污(或减污);3)在生活源减排与工业处理效率提高都不足以缓解水环境压力的情况下,因地制宜地采取"零入河"管理方式解决污水出路问题。实现区域经济增长水质改善(或不恶化)。

Based Gansu Province, on polluting sources survey data of 2010 and environmental statistical data from 2001 to 2010 in Qinghai Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and through scenario analysis method, the water environment evolution tendency was studied under the economic development status in key regions of Northwest inland river basins. Three levels of approaches were proposed to release the pressure. The first is to reinforce pollutant discharge reduction by production structure adjustment and wastewater treatment measures, hence to increase the production and decrease the pollution. The second is to seek space for industrial development through controlling domestic pollution sources from the perspective of regional discharge reduction system and thus realize the economic growth and the pollution reduction, in the case that promoting efficiency of treating wastewater is not enough. The third is to introduce the ＂none input into river＂ management to solve the wastewater problem so as to realize the increase of economy and improvement of water quality, when neither controlling domestic discharges nor promoting industrial pollution treatment efficiency is enough to release water environment pressure.