初婚年龄、婚龄匹配与婚姻稳定——基于CFPS 2010年调查数据

Age at First Marriage,Matched-age and Marital Stability——Based on Data from CFPS2010

采用2010年中国家庭动态跟踪调查(CFPS)数据建立离散时间Logit模型,分析当今中国社会女性初婚年龄及婚龄匹配对婚姻稳定的影响作用。研究结果显示,女性初婚年龄对婚姻稳定的影响效应呈"U"型模式;夫妻不同婚配年龄也对婚姻稳定产生不同影响。同时,女性初婚年龄与夫妻婚配年龄对婚姻稳定的影响存在着城乡差异。随着我国高等教育的普及、婚姻成本的不断提高,以及适婚人口性别结构的严重失衡,可以预见我国社会中的晚婚现象将越来越普遍,而晚婚带来的不匹配婚姻也将会是婚姻不稳定的重要因素。

Based on data from ＂Chinese Family Panel Survey （CFPS）＂, this paper analyzes the effects of age at first marriage and matched-age on marital stability in Chinese family. The results from discrete-time event history analysis show that： age at first marriage has an ＂U＂ -type effect on marital stability, and matched-age also affects marital stability. In addition, there is an urban-rural difference in the effects of age at first marriage and matched-age on marital stability in Chinese family. With popularization of highereducation, increase of marriage-cost and imbalance of sex structure of population, late marriage will be more and more common in Chinese society and may have an important role on marital instability.