高龄化下的代间关系——台湾民众孝道信念变迁趋势分析(1994-2011)

The Intergenerational Relationship under Population Ageing:Analysis on the changes in filial piety in Taiwan society from 1994 to 2011

本研究以华人孝道双元(相互性及权威性)模型为基础,采用台湾社会变迁基本调查计划跨17年(1994-2011年)的大型数据,运用多层次线性模式之"交叉分类随机模型",进行"年龄—时期—世代效果分析",以更严谨方式检验近年台湾社会孝道观念的重要性是否随时期产生变迁,并从代间互动关系转型角度来探讨时期效应的深层意涵。研究结果显示:在现代化与民主化历程下,台湾亲子代间关系的运作本质虽稳定呈现以相互性孝道为核心的类平辈关系,但受到近期社会人口高龄化趋势的影响,亲子代间互动的运作逐渐朝"契约式关系"发展,呈现出双元孝道的重要性皆随时期上升的变化趋势,且权威性孝道上升幅度高于相互性孝道。

Using the Dual Filial Piety(namely reciprocal and authoritarian filial piety) Model as the theoretical basis,this study investigated the changing trends of the dual filial piety in Taiwan from 1994 to 2011 and then interpreted its implication from the perspective of the transformation of intergenerational relationships within the context of population ageing.In order to examine the time effect with repeated crosssectional data in a more rigorous way,we conducted an age-period-cohort analysis with cross-classified random-effect model(or the so-called hierarchical age-periodcohort model,HAPC model) which allows distinguishing the relative contributions of the temporal dimensions of age,time period,and birth cohort to the variance in social phenomena.Results indicated:(1) The importance of both reciprocal and authoritarian filial piety has increased steadily during 1994 to 2011;(2) HAPC models demonstrated that the changes in the dual filial piety were both due to time period changes rather than birth cohort;(3) The age effect was only significant for authoritarian filial piety.Finally,the implications of the rising trends in the dual filial piety in Taiwan and the connections between the time period effects and some macro social trends(such as population ageing) were discussed.