城市低碳发展水平的区域分异及其影响因素——基于中国GDP前110强地级以上城市的实证研究

Regional Difference in Low Carbon Development Level of City and Its Influencing Factor:Empirical Study Based on Top 110 Cities in GDP of China

利用《中国城市智慧低碳发展报告》中我国GDP前110强地级以上城市的低碳发展数据,运用加权变异系数法和Theil指数分解法分析了大样本城市低碳发展水平的空间分异,并运用多元线性逐步回归模型定量分析了各层次低碳发展综合水平的影响因素及其差异。结果表明:样本城市的整体低碳发展水平不高,高值城市以东部地区的轻工业城市或综合型城市为主,低值城市则以中、西部的资源型城市或重化工业城市为主;城市整体的低碳发展水平的空间差异较大,低值城市的空间差异最大、高值城市的空间差异最小、中值城市的空间差异居中;城市低碳发展的区域分异主要由层次间的差异引起;碳排放系数、能源效率、人均GDP是影响城市低碳发展的主要因素;城市整体和中、低值城市影响因素的显著性的排序结果为碳排放系数>能源效率>人均GDP,而高值城市的排序结果是能源效率>碳排放系数>人均GDP。提出:可参考"共同但有区别的责任"原则分解各城市的碳减排量,对各层次城市宜采取差别化的低碳发展政策。

Using the data of low carbon development of top 110 cities in GDP from＂Smart Low Carbon Development of Cities in China＂ ,this paper uses the method of weighted coefficient of variation and the first-order decomposition of Theil index to analyze the regional difference in low carbon development levels of large sample cities. Then it uses the multiple linear stepwise regressions to analyze quantitatively the influence fac- tors of different low carbon development levels and their regional difference. The conclusions are as follows：the whole low carbon development level is not high,and the cities with high value consist of light industry cities or comprehensive cities in eastern region,while the cities with low value are mainly resource-based or heavy industry cities in mid-west region;the whole difference is very large, and the regional difference of cities with low value is the biggest,and that of cities with high value is the least, and that of cities with medium ones is in the middle; the regional difference mostly results from the differences among stratifications;CO2 emission coefficient,energy efficiency and per capita GDP are the main influencing factors of low carbon development of city; the significance of influencing factor for whole, medium and low value cities in descending order are all CO2 emission coefficient〉energy efficiency〉per capita GDP,but for high value cities,it is energy efficiency〉CO2 emission coefficient〉per capita GDP. Therefore,government should refer to the principle of＂common but differentiated＂to distribute the reduction of carbon emission,and adopt the differentiated policies of low-carbon development for cities with high,medium and low value.