洪灾风险评价通用模型系统的研究

STUDIES ON THE GENERAL MODEL SYSTEM OF FLOOD HAZARD RISK EVALUTION

针对目前洪灾风险评价中存在的问题，建立了通用的洪灾风险评价模型系统，包括水文模型、水力模型及损失评估模型三部分。其中水文模型主要研究洪水的线型分布；水力模型主要研究河道及洪水风险区的洪水演进问题；损失评估模型主要对洪水灾害给人类生存和发展所造成的危害程度大小作出定量评估。该模型系统为洪灾风险评价提供了一个统一的标准，是一个综合性强、操作简单的实用模型。最后，通过实例研究，进一步证明通用模型系统的可行性和有效性。

The general model system is established for the evaluation of flood hazard risk, which includes the hydrologic model, hydraulic model and damage assessment model. The hydrologic model focuses mostly on the linetype distribution of flood; hydraulic model explores mainly flood routing problems of watercourse and flood risk zones; damage assessment model evalutes quantitatively to what extent flood hazard damage the survival and development of humanity. The model system provides a uniform standard for flood hazard risk evaluation. It is also a practical model which is well intergrated and simply operated. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the general model system are further demonstrated by an example study.