基于UGF的发电系统区间可靠性评估及其仿射算法改进

Interval reliability estimation of power generating system based on UGF method and its modification by using affine arithmetic

文章在元件可靠性指标为区间概率的基础上,结合区间概率和区间数运算来计算发电系统的可靠性指标。运用区间一般生成函数方法(IUGF)得到发电系统的区间值可靠性指标,但是此方法忽略了变量间的相关性,导致计算所得区间值过宽。仿射区间一般生成函数方法(AIUGF)考虑了原始数据中的相关性,能得到更窄且更为准确的发电系统区间可靠性指标。算例分别采用2种方法得到了RTS79的区间值可靠性指标,验证了AIUGF方法比IUGF方法能得到更窄的区间,并且系统不确定性越大,AIUGF方法在减小由于相关性造成的区间过宽上越有效果。

Considering that the component reliability indexes are interval probability ,the interval probability and the interval arithmetic are combined to calculate the reliability indexes of power generating system .The interval universal generating function （IUGF） method ,which is combined by interval arithmetic and universal generating function ,is used to get interval-valued reliability indexes .However ,as this approach ignores the correlation between variables ,the calculated interval value is too wide .The affine interval universal genera-ting function（AIUGF） method takes the correlation of original data into account ,so narrower and more accu-rate reliability indexes will be got .The numerical example ,which uses the two methods to calculate interval reliability indexes of system RTS79 respectively ,verifies that AIUGF method can get narrower intervals than IUGF method .On the aspect of decreasing the width of intervals due to dependency ,the AIUGF method is more effective when the system is more uncertain .