山东省工业结构演变的水环境效应研究

A Study of Water Environmental Effects on the Evolution of Industrial Structure in Shandong Province

文章采用LMDI分解方法研究了1991-2011年山东省工业结构演变对水环境污染物排放的影响,参照世界银行认定的水污染密集型产业选取了山东省水污染密集型产业,在此基础上探讨了污染密集型产业结构变动的水环境效应。得出以下结论:经济总量增长引起了水环境污染物排放量的增加,技术效率的提高则抑制了污染物排放量的增加,但技术效率的减排效应在不断减弱,因此,工业结构的调整是污染物减排的重要内容;污染密集型产业的增加值占工业增加值的比重为50%左右,但其污染物排放量却占到整个工业污染物排放量的85%以上;污染密集型产业比重上升或下降一个百分点,对应的工业废水、COD、石油类、挥发酚和氰化物排放量将上升或下降0.8亿t、17.1万t、61.0t、80.2t和5.9t。研究表明,未来工业结构的调整,尤其是污染密集型产业的调整将有助于山东省水环境的治理与优化。

The paper applies the LMDI decomposition method to analyze the impact of the evolution of industrial structure on water environmental pollutant emissions in Shandong Province from the year of 1991 to 2011. The water pollution-inten-sive industries in Shandong Province are selected referring to the water pollution-intensive industries which are identified by the World Bank. Based on this, the effect of changes in water environment pollution-intensive industrial structure is ex-plored. The conclusions are： Economic growth causes an increase in the total water environmental pollutant emissions, the improvement of technical efficiency restrains the increase of pollutant emissions, but the emission effects of technical effi-ciency is constantly weakened, the adjustment of industrial structure is an important element for reduction of pollutant emis-sions; The added value of pollution-intensive industries account for about 50% of industrial added value, but their pollutant emissions make up more than 85% of the total industrial pollutant emissions; The proportion of pollution-intensive indus-tries increases or decreases one percent, the corresponding industrial wastewater, COD, oil, volatile phenol and cyanide emis-sions will rise or fall 80 million tons, 171 thousand tons, 61 tons, 80.2 tons and 5.9 tons. The study shows that the adjust-ment of industrial structure in the future, especially the adjustment of structure of pollution intensive industries will improve and optimize water environment in Shandong Province.