我国能源补贴对能源结构的影响效应研究

A Study of the Effects of Energy Subsidies on Energy Structure in China

文章依据2007-2011年间能源补贴与能源结构的样本数据,运用交叉相关系数方法,首次实证研究了我国能源补贴对能源结构的影响效应。研究表明,煤补贴在滞后二阶时与煤结构相关度达到最大,煤补贴在当期补贴过后,对煤结构产生滞后影响;石油补贴在滞后一阶时与石油结构相关度达到最大,石油补贴在当期补贴过后,对石油结构产生滞后影响;天然气补贴在滞后三阶时与天然气结构相关度达到最大,天然气补贴在当期补贴过后,对天然气结构产生滞后影响;非化石能源补贴在当期与非化石能源结构相关度达到最大,非化石能源补贴对其当期结构具有重要影响。最后,提出了我国能源补贴和能源结构优化的政策建议。

Based on the data of energy structure and energy subsidies from the year of 2007 to 2011, using cross correlation coefficient method, the first empirical research of the effects of energy subsidies on energy structure in China is carried out. The research shows that coal subsidies are in backward second-order maximum correlation with coal structure, coal subsidies are in the current subsidy after the lag influence on coal structure. Oil subsidies are in the lag of first order of maximum correlation with oil structure, oil subsidies are in the current subsidy after the lag influence on structure of oil. Gas subsidies are in the lag order of maximum correlation with gas structure, gas subsi-dies are in the current subsidy after the lag influence on gas structure. Non-fossil energy subsidies are in the cur-rent and non-fossil energy structure achieves maximum correlation, non-fossil energy subsidies have important influ-ences on its current structure. Finally, the paper proposes the policy recommendations on China＆#39;s energy subsidies and energy structure optimization.