基于等维灰数递补动态模型的广东省交通事故预测

Prediction of Guangdong province traffic accidents based on equal dimension gray dynamic model

针对广东省道路交通事故统计信息少和内部发生机理复杂的特点,在分析广东省道路和交通安全现状的基础上,利用灰色系统理论的等维灰数递补动态模型,构建了广东省交通事故预测模型,并根据广东省2007-2012年的交通事故统计数据,对未来短期内广东省发生的交通事故数和伤亡人数进行了预测.检验结果表明,在广东省交通事故的预测中,与回归预测模型相比,等维灰数递补动态模型具有更高精度和适应性.

Guangdong Province traffic accident had less statistical information and complex internal mechanism. Guangdong Province traffic accident forecasting model was established by the equal dimension gray dynamic model of gray system theory based on analyzing road development situation and the present situation of traffic safety. According to the statistics of traffic accidents of Guangdong Province from 2007 to 2012, the number of traffic accidents and casualties in short term were forecasted. The inspection showed that, compared with regression analysis model the equal dimension gray dynamic model, was more accuracy and flexibility in the prediction of Guangdong Province traffic accidents.