工资水平、外汇汇率、流通中货币与物价波动间的关系——估计弹性系数具有区间性视角下的协整分析

The Relationship between Price Fluctuation and Wage Level,Foreign Exchange Rate,Currency in Circulation——Estimation of elastic coefficient having the whole interval from the perspective of the co-integration test

协整检验得到的研究结论表明:1952年至2011年,工资水平、外汇汇率和流通中货币三者依次均与物价水平正相关;工资水平、外汇汇率和流通中货币三者对物价水平的弹性系数均具有区间性;工资水平每变动1%,物价水平随之变动0.225 07%至0.290 74%,外汇汇率每变动1%,物价水平随之变动0.191 14%至0.255 96%,流通中货币每变动1%,物价水平随之变动0.042 31%至0.072 84%;从工资水平、外汇汇率和流通中货币三者对物价水平影响程度的60年长期视角来看,推动我国物价上涨的主要因素是工资水平和外汇汇率,而流通中货币对我国物价上涨的影响相对较小。

The conclusions of the co-integration test showed that： from 1952 to 2011, it was positively between price fluctuation and wage level, foreign exchange rates and currency in circulation; the elastic coefficients of the three factors on price fluctuation had interval; the wage level for each 1 % changed, the price level changed from 0. 225 07% to 0. 290 74 %, the exchange rate changed every 1%, price level changed from 0. 191 14% to 0. 255 96 %, currency in circulation changed every 1%, price level changed from 0. 04Z 31% to 0. 072 84 % ; from the view of the 60-year long term perspective of the three factors＇ effects on price fluctuation, the wage level and the foreign exchange rates were the main factors of price rising, and the currency in circulation on the impact of Chings inflation was relatively small.