准噶尔盆地天然气产量增长趋势及加快发展策略

THE PRODUCTION INCREASING TREND AND ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF NATURAL GAS IN JUNGGAR BASIN

运用HCZ模型对准噶尔盆地天然气产量增长趋势进行了全生命周期的预测。预测结果表明,气层气产量高峰将出现在2045年,年产量将为104.84×108m3,到2091年累积气层气产量将达到6647.13×108m3,占天然气总资源量的47.6%。将气层气产量变化趋势划分为上升、持续和下降三个阶段,认为目前盆地天然气产量增长尚处于上升阶段,上产潜力很大。在此基础上,通过盆地天然气开发潜力及存在问题进行分析,认为目前已开发气藏稳产难度大,优质可动用的后备资源不足,天然气供需矛盾突出,提出了三项加快天然气发展的策略,对确保天然气储量、产量稳定增长,缓解天然气供需矛盾,提高勘探开发整体效益具有积极的指导作用。

The life circle of production increasing trend of natural gas in Junggar Basin is predicted with HCZ model. The prediction result shows that the gas-field gas production peak will be in 2045 with the annual production of 104. 84 × 108m3,and the accumulated gas-field gas production will be 6647. 13 ×108m3in 2091, which accounts for 47. 6% of the total resource of natural gas. The production variation trend of gas-field gas can be divided into three phases: rising,continuing and declining,and the production variation trend of natural gas in Junggar Basin is thought to be in the phase of rising with big production potential. According to the analysis of development potential and existing problems of the natural gas in Junggar Basin,the stable production of the developed gas reservoir is difficult to be keeped at present,there is no adequate high-quality and available reserved reservoir,there is serious imbalance between supply and demand,and three accelerating development strategies of natural gas are put forward,which have positive guidances for ensuring the steady increase of reserves and production of natural gas,relieving the imbalance between supply and demand of natural gas,and improving the whole efficiency of exploration and development.