主权债务危机的约束条件、发展趋势与21世纪初新特征

The Constraints, the Development Trend and New Feature of Sovereign Debt Crisis in Early 21st Century

随着经济全球化的日益深入,20世纪80年代、90年代和21世纪初先后爆发了三轮主权债务危机。它们的发生具有特定的约束条件,既有共性的内在原因,如危机国经济结构失衡、债务规模超过警戒线、债务结构不合理及债务投放领域不当等,也有着不同的特征。通过比较研究发现,21世纪初,主权债务危机有向发达国家转移,危机呈日常化、长期化,危机传导与蔓延的速度、力度愈发增强等新的发展趋势与特征。债务国只有调整经济结构,注重提高产品与服务的国际竞争力,才有利于提高偿债能力、规避或挽救主权债务危机。

This paper reviews sovereign debt crisis occurred in the 1980s, 1990s and the early 21st century. Most eventually move from＇ the sovereign debt, needs forming conditions. The main constraints are caused by the following factors of crisis country： the irrational size and structure of debt, the improperly used of debt, the imbalance of economic structure. Only by investing their sovereign debt to improve the competitiveness of their products and services can debtor countries probably avoid the crises. Based on a longitudinal study about the sovereign debt crisis occurred after the 1980s, 1990s and the early 21st century, this paper extracts the development trend and the new features of sovereign debt crisis occurred in the early 21st century.