中国流通产业的“序数安全度”测算——基于结构及趋势调整方法

Empirical Estimation on the Ordinal Security of Chinese Circulation Industry——Based on Structural and Tendency Adjustment Methods

有关中国流通产业安全的现有经验文献测算出一个具体的安全度数值,可称之为"基数安全度"方法,但在指标归类、赋权及判别标准上存在主观偏差问题。本文在指标选取中遵循可加性原则,避免了此类偏差,并基于外资商业地理布局非均衡性对指标值进行结构调整,基于外资商业历史发展轨迹对指标值进行趋势调整,测算出反映中国流通产业安全相对变化的"序数安全度"。结果显示,中国流通产业安全在2006-2011年间持续加速恶化,其中原因在于中国流通产业政策规制缺失,外资商业进入速度加快、地理分布越来越不均衡、整体实力增强,以及中国流通产业自下而上的"逆向型"开放路径。

Most of the existing empirical literatures on Chinese circulation industry security estimate a specific security value, or say cardinal security, but have subjective problems such as index sorting and weighting, and final judgement standard. This paper attempts to avoid these problems by selecting indices with additivity, adjusts original results through structural adjustment and tendency adjustment methods, against the unbalanced geographic distributing and the historic development locus of foreign commerce in China respectively, and estimates an ordinal security reflecting the relative change of Chinese circulation industry security. The results show that Chinese circulation industry security deteriorates faster and faster in the period of 2006--201I, and the causes may lie in China＇s lacking policy regulations of circulation industry, foreign commerce＇s entering China with faster paces, more unbalanced geographic distributing and their much more powerful competitiveness on the whole, and the converse open-up path Chinese distributional industry had followed.