北京市地铁7号线地质沉降数据的时间序列分析

Analysis of the Settlement Data about Beijing Metro Line 7 Based on Time Series Analysis

本文运用时间序列方法,构建模型对北京市地铁七号线(九龙山站到大郊亭站)建设过程中地质沉降的数据进行分析,并对未来地质沉降的走势进行了预测.文章主要分为以下三个部分:第一部分是本文所用的模型介绍,包括时间序列AR(P)模型、Yule-Walker方程对模型的参数估计、AIC定阶、白噪声检验.第二部分,对原始数据进行分析,并对数据进行伸缩变换,去除趋势项,建立了AR(2)模型.根据所构建的模型,对未来的地质沉降做出预测.第三部分是本文的结论.

Based on the method of time series analysis, this paper analysis the settlement data about the Beijing metro line 7 and predicted the future trend about the settlement. This paper mainly divided into the following three parts： The first part, introduction of the model this paper used, include the time series model AR （p） , estimate parameter by Yule-Walker equation, determine order by AIC method and test the white noise and so on. The second part, analysis the origin data and make scaling transformation to these data, remove the trend term and build the AR（p） model. Based on the model, we make the predictions about the settlement in next ten days. The third part is the main conclusion about this paper.