实际汇率升值与经济增长方式转变——基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究

Appreciation of Real Exchange Rate and Transformation of Economic Growth Pattern: An Empirical Analysis Based on China's 1995-2012 Provincial Panel Data

本文在测度1995-2012年我国30个省份实际汇率的基础上,构建了关于实际汇率与经济增长方式的计量模型,利用动态面板系统GMM估计法,分别在全国和地区层面上考察了我国实际汇率升值对经济增长方式转变的影响。研究结果表明,我国各省份实际汇率的变化趋势存在明显差异性,沿海地区实际汇率升值势头强于内陆地区,我国总体实际汇率呈现较快升值态势。在全国层面上,我国实际汇率升值不仅对经济增长方式的转变具有负的直接效应,也会通过与影响经济增长方式的其他因素相互作用对经济增长方式形成正的间接效应,总效应表现为实际汇率升值对经济增长方式的转变发挥促进作用。在地区层面上,沿海地区实际汇率升值对经济增长方式也具有负直接效应和正间接效应,总效应显示为实际汇率升值有助于转变经济增长方式。内陆地区实际汇率升值对经济增长方式的直接和间接效应均为正,对经济增长方式转变的总推进作用强于沿海地区。

Appreciation of real exchange rate and transformation of economic growth pattern are currently key issues in China. In this paper, we measure the real exchange rate of China＇ s 30 provinces from 1995 to 2012, and use sys-GMM estimator to explore the relationship between appreciation of real ex- change rate and the transformation of extensive economic growth pattern. The re- suits show that variations of real exchange rate in the 30 provinces are obvious- ly different. The appreciation speed of real exchange rate in coastal area is faster than that in inland areas and China＇s general real exchange rate is appreciating quickly. China＇s real exchange rate appreciation is negatively relative to transfor- mation of economic growth pattern directly, and by interacting with other factors influencing economic growth, it is positively relative to interaction of transforma- tion of economic growth pattern indirectly. The overall effect is that China＇s real exchange rate appreciation affects transformation of economic growth pattern posi- tively. This paper also investigates the appreciation of real exchange rate and transformation of economic growth pattems in China＇s coastal and inland areas respectively.