中国居民生活电力消费的分解分析

The Decomposition Analysis of Residential Electricity Consumption in China

电力消费对节能环保有重大影响。采用LMDI方法,基于人口效应、城市化效应、社会原子化效应和用电强度效应等因素,对中国居民生活用电的增长进行了分解。研究表明,对于全国而言,用电强度上升是引起居民生活用电量上升的主要原因;人口增长、城市化和社会原子化目前并非居民生活用电增长的主要推动力,但影响正在加强;对不同地区而言,各影响因素对生活电力消费增长的作用存在较大差异。

Electricity consumption plays an important role in resource conservation and environmental protection.Using LMDI method and decomposition analysis,this paper identified four key factors including demographic effects,urbanization,social atomization and electricity consumption intensity that contribute to the increase of residential electricity consumption （REC）.Results show that the increased electricity consumption intensity is the primary driver for REC increment across the country.While demographic,urbanization and social atomization do not have a strong explanation power for the current REC growth,but their impacts tend to increase.Besides,it is found that there are significant differences about the influences of the four factors among four major economic regions.