两次飞机增雨作业过程数值模拟分析

Numerical Simulation of Two Aircraft Rain Enhancement Operation

利用国家气象中心GRAPES业务模式耦合混合相双参数云微物理方案，对2010年12月15日的两次飞机人工增雨作业过程进行了催化数值模拟分析。分析得出：GRAPES模式基本能给出正确的中低层天气形势场和降水的动力结构，较大降水的落区和范围基本可信，降水强度较实况偏小；按照作业实况进行催化模拟具有一定的可信度，与实况降水在较强降水区域有较好的对应性；两次播撒都取得了增加降雨量的效果，24h平均增雨量在3～5mm，最大增雨量达7mm，两次播撒后增雨作业区的累计降水总量较未播撒时增加约一倍；播撒有效时段在4h内，播撒后1～2h雨量增加最大，增雨区域初期与播撒区域一致，随时间延长而在播撒区附近扩散；第一次播撒时，播撒冰晶消耗液态水，转化成固态水，水汽流人速度加快，向液态水转化加快，液态水迅速恢复，未出现减雨现象；第二次播撒时，云中固态水争食水汽增长，液态水得不到补充，云中上升运动减弱，自然降水阶段出现减雨现象。

Using the GRAPES model which incorporates a new two-moment microphysical scheme, two aircraft artificial precipitation processes that happened in Chongqing on 15 December 2010 are simulated and analyzed. The results show that GRAPES model is able to simulate the real synoptic situation of medium, the precipitation area is credibility, but the intensity is small. Seeding simulation has good correspondence with the observed rainfall in heavier precipitation areas. Seeding twice leads to the increasing of precipitation, the 24 h average enhancement rainfall is 3-5 mm and the maximum amount is 7 mm. The 24 h accumulative total precipitation of seeding is double times than no seeding in seeding area. Obvious enhancement result is seen in 1-2 hours after seeding, and the rain enhancement continues about 4 hours. At the beginning the area of enhancement is the same as the seeding area, spreading near the seeding area with the time. After the first seeding, the liquid water is quickly transformed into solid water by ice crystal, and the vapor inflow accelerates changing into liquid water, so the liquid water quickly There is no rain reduced. After the second seeding, the solid water increases by vapor transform supplement of liquid water is poor, the ascending motion of clouds decreases, and the rainfall is re the stage of natural precipitation. seeding restore. ing, the duced at