岷县、漳县6.6级地震的预测过程回顾

Sequence Type Estimation of the Minxian-Zhangxian M_s6.6 Earthquake and a Review of the Prediction Process

0引言 2013年月22日7时45分甘肃岷县漳县发生了6．6级地震。这是甘东南几十年一遇、甘肃省十年一遇的灾难性地震，它给震中区造成了严重的人员伤亡和财产损失，也严重影响了甘东南及其外围诸多地区。甘肃省地震局事先对本次地震有觉察吗？这是人们所关心的问题。对此，我们做了一些回顾性的工作，取得了一些有意义且对今后开展地震预报工作值得借鉴的结果。

After the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties of Gansu Province on July 22, 2013, we preliminarily estimated the earthquake sequence to be a main shock-aftershock type based on the history of moderate-strong earthquake sequences in this area. As time went on, there were more aftershock events. These could be used for further analysis, and then for further decision on the earthquake sequence type. Finally, we determined the Ms6.6 earthquake sequence that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties, Gansu Province as having been a main shock-aftershock type, with the largest Ms5.6 aftershock having occurred on the same day as the main Ms6.6 shock, from a comprehensive analysis of the historical characteristics of moderatety strong earthquakes of the earthquake zone, and the space-time evolution characteristics and parameters of the earthquake sequence. These provided a correct basis for anti- earthquake relief work and played an important role in mitigating the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the disturbed soci- ety after the earthquake in the earthquake zone and its neighboring areas. Reviewing the forecasting process and the re- sults, we found that we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earthquake that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties on July 22, 2013 several years before it occurred. The magnitude and location of the earthquake had been predicted accurately, and the accuracy of the prediction was much higher than any other example in Chinese earth- quake prediction history. Forecasting on a monthly scale, we had indicated at the monthly meeting on earthquake prediction at the end of February, 2013 that there would be a risk of a moderately strong earthquake in Gansu Province from the change in moderately strong earthquake activity on the Chinese mainland. Even for short and impending earthquake prediction from several days to several dozens of days, we had proposed the likelihood of a moderate-strong earthquake happening in Gansu Province and the adjacent areas from the results of previous studies and the cases of earthquakes with MI ≥ 4.0 from the time before the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred. In a meeting about earthquake prediction held several days before the occurrence of the Ms6.6 event, we made the prediction that there would be an earthquake of M≥ 5.0 happening somewhere in Gansu Province and the surrounding area within dozens of days. The fact we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earth-quake on a several-year scale, as well as over a short time period to some extent, reinforces our belief that earthquakes can be forecast. Even with our present level of understanding, we can still capture some information on the gestation and occurrence of earthquakes before the arrival of a disaster. However, in order to achieve the goal of earthquake prediction in China, earthquake scientists still need to make arduous efforts. As long as earthquake scientists use the correct approach, and government supplies the necessary manpower and material resources to predict earthquakes, we believe that there will be a hope to achieve the aim of earthquake prediction with a relief effect. It is promising that we have achieved at least one or two earthquake forecasts.