淡水养殖池塘水温预测预报模型的应用与检验

The Application and Inspection of Prediction Model for Water Temperature in Freshwater Aquaculture Pond

采用准差分法消除了池塘水温预测预报模型的自相关,推导简化了日最高水温的预测回归模型,并采用信度分析方法检验了对虾养殖生产后期池塘水温预报的准确性,结果表明预报值与实测值误差较小,信度较高,可应用于养殖生产。

This paper introduced the generalized difference method for eliminating autocorrelation in pre-diction model for water temperature in aquaculture pond. The forecast regression model for daily maximum temperature was also simplified. Meanwhile, the temperature prediction accuracy of prawn pond in production tail was tested by using reliability analysis methods. With a result revealing small error and high reliability be-tween predicted values and measured values, the model was proved feasible to aquaculture production.