决策过程中情感因素影响主观概率估计的实证研究

An Empirical Research of the Impacts of Affective Factors on Subjective Probability Estimation in the Decision-making Process

人类的决策过程并不一定都是理性过程。研究表明,情感因素可能参与其中。主观概率估计是人类决策过程中一种常见的认知加工活动,是推理和决策的基础。研究通过32个未来事件,考察了在有无时间压力下,人们对积极或消极事件进行主观概率估计时,情感因素的影响。结果发现,人们大多认为积极事件将来发生的可能性要大于消极事件,同时结果还显示,在时间压力引起的紧张情绪下,参照主体以及描述方式都会影响人们的主观概率估计。这一结果表明情感因素影响决策过程,对情感因素的有意控制可以部分达到影响决策的目的。

People's decision-making process is not always rational. The studies show that affective factors may be involved. The subjective probability estimation is a common cognitive processing activity in people's decision-making process,and it is the base of reasoning and decision making. The research investigates the impacts of affective factors on people's subjective probability estimation about positive or negative events under different time pressure through 32 future events. The results show that people give higher probability estimation for positive events than negative events,and the time pressure,reference subjects and description ways will affect people's subjective probability estimation. This conclusion indicates that affective factors will influence decision-making process,intentionally controlling affective factors can partially influence the decisions.