Box-Jenkins方法在我国沿海规模以上港口货物吞吐量预测中的应用

Box-Jenkins method's application in handling capacity forecast in China coastal above designated scale

影响港口运输的因素多而复杂,且货物吞吐量的时间序列往往不平稳,如果通过找出影响港口货物吞吐量的因素变量,并建立回归模型进行分析,往往会存在自变量构造技术上的困难以及产生虚假回归问题等等。因此,本文采用时间序列分析中的Box-Jenkins方法对我国沿海规模以上港口货物吞吐量进行建模及预测,其结果表明运用Box-Jenkins方法建模预测能大大减小误差,提高预测的精确性,从而为合理制定我国港口的发展战略提供条件。

The factors affecting port transport are complex and the time series analysis of cargo through- put s often not smooth, if we establish the regression model analysis through finding out the influencing factors of cargo throughput of port, there will be a technical difficulty of building independent variables and a problem of producing a false regression problem. Therefore, this paper uses the time series analysis of Box -Jenkins method to model and forecast Cargo throughput of China＇s coastal scale above port, and the result shows that using the Box -Jenkins method can greatly reduce errors, improve the precision of the prediction, so as to reasonably provide conditions for the development strategy of port in China.