基于ARAMIS体系的爆炸风险评价法及其应用

Explosion risk assessment method based on ARAMIS system and its application

根据ARAMIS体系,提出针对爆炸事故的定量风险评估方法。采用蝴蝶结分析法(bow-tie法)定性分析事故原因及计算爆炸事故发生的概率,基于TNO多能法计算远场爆炸超压,计算超压严重度和装置脆弱度,确定爆炸风险值并绘制爆炸风险图。对某液化天然气罐区进行了实例计算,结果表明:基于ARAMIS体系的爆炸风险评估法的评价结果是合理的,且具有较好的应用前景。

According to the ARAMIS （Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries System） methodology, quantitative risk assessment method of explosion accident is put forward. Accident causes are qualitatively analyzed and the probability of explosion is calculated by bow-tie method. The far field explosion overpressure is calculated based on the TNO method; the overpressure severity and vulnerability of device are calculated; the explosion risk value is determined and the graph is drawn. The method has been applied to a liquefied natural gas （LNG） tank flied, and the results show that the explosion risk assessment method based on ARAMIS system is reasonable and has good application prospect.