当前货币国际化进程中的资本账户开放路径效应分析

Analysis on the Path Effect of the Capital Account Liberalization in the Process of Currency Internationalization

本文在对近年来美元、欧元、日元、英镑和瑞士法郎国际化进程中资本账户开放概况综述的基础上,重点分析了资本账户开放对货币国际化进程所产生的影响。文章得到了以下几个方面的结论:首先,当前阶段,外国直接投资流入的增加,可以推动货币的国际化。其次,由于金融风险迅速在全球传递,发达国家量化宽松货币政策的执行,越来越多的国家开始实施资本管制以应对跨境资本流入,所以,对外直接投资的流出,不利于货币国际化进程的深入。再次,国外证券组合股权流入的增加,有助于促进投资货币职能的体现,有利于当前货币的国际化。最后,发行国际化货币国家国内的宏观经济环境,包括稳定的经济增长率、以及对国内通货膨胀率的控制都是当前货币国际化进程中资本账户顺利开放的必备条件。

Based on the analysis on the process of the capital account liberalization of the U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Sterling and the Swiss Franc in the new century, this paper gives a detailed description on the effects of opening capital account on the internationalization of a currency. The conclusions are as followed. Firstly, at present, it can promote the internationalization of a currency with increasing foreign direct investment. Secondly, for the financial risk and the loose monetary policy, this paper found that more and more countries began to implement capital controls to deal with cross-border flows. So, the outflow of foreign direct investment is not conducive to the process. Thirdly, the inflows of foreign portfolio equity are beneficial to the internationalization. Finally, the domestic macroeconomic environment, including stable GDP and CPI, will be necessary for the capital account opening.